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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hong shi zhang zuiwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cloud Risingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hong shi zhang zui

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BEYOND · 4 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 3 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
TK · 2 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
TK · 2 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 2 games
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
lou · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
TK · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
100%

Cloud Rising

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Q7 · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Q7 · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 723 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
274 picks · 176 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
270 picks · 250 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 669 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
252 picks · 267 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 247 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 666 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 562 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength63% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total73% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:23
Hong shi zhang zui 62%Cloud Rising 38%
The model gave 62% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackBEYOND
60% · 103 games39% · 23 games
Faceless VoidYumeyume
Faceless Void
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlou
46% · 68 games52% · 246 games
Storm SpiritQ7
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTK
40% · 59 games
Disruptor
DisruptorUndyne_
55% · 39 games
Game 2prediction missed32:40
Hong shi zhang zui 63%Cloud Rising 37%
The model gave 63% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 52:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
38% · 26 games52% · 53 games
LeshracQ7
Leshrac
Lycan
LycanBEYOND
57% · 29 games46% · 58 games
SvenYumeyume
Sven
Snapfire
SnapfireTK
47% · 24 games
Bane
BaneUndyne_
60% · 32 games
Game 3prediction correct32:7
Hong shi zhang zui 64%Cloud Rising 36%
The model gave 64% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 29:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlou
52% · 61 game42% · 61 game
UrsaYumeyume
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
57% · 44 games53% · 143 games
Ember SpiritQ7
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTK
41% · 49 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanUndyne_
57% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 73%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3