Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hopewin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team M11loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hope
No games played over 6 months.
Team M11
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
746 picks · 475 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 458 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 386 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 591 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 259 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 620 bans
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team M11
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:38
Hope 45%Team M11 55%
The model gave 55% on Team M11 — the game was taken by Team M11 in 45:06.
Game 2prediction missed52:37
Hope 45%Team M11 55%
The model gave 55% on Team M11 — the game was taken by Hope in 52:38.
Game 3prediction missed41:22
Hope 45%Team M11 55%
The model gave 55% on Team M11 — the game was taken by Hope in 48:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam M11 · 55%
Series resultHope 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3