Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs predictionHHorizonloss 0:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
IHC Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
Miranasignature
Se · 7 games
Rubick
ace12 · 5 games
Disruptor
Se · 4 games
Doomoften banned
423 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
985 picks · 692 bans
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 930 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 408 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 409 bans
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1210 bans
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:41
Horizon 45%IHC Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 28:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 55%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1