Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTUwin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beatifullloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
beatifull
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 285 bans
Marci
284 picks · 530 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 243 bans
Undying
258 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 491 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 539 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% HOTU
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% beatifull
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:19
HOTU 46%beatifull 54%
The model gave 54% on beatifull — the game was taken by HOTU in 42:09.
Game 2prediction correct46:18
HOTU 46%beatifull 54%
The model gave 54% on beatifull — the game was taken by beatifull in 28:09.
Game 3prediction missed34:24
HOTU 46%beatifull 54%
The model gave 54% on beatifull — the game was taken by HOTU in 41:57.
Model check result
Model favoritebeatifull · 54%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3