Открытые киберспортивные игры 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTUwin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Cclublifeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
clublife
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 242 bans
Marci
337 picks · 563 bans
Undying
288 picks · 491 bans
Tusk
268 picks · 171 bans
Pangolier
254 picks · 418 bans
Primal Beast
246 picks · 500 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 283 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% HOTU
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% clublife
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
HOTU 30%clublife 70%
The model gave 70% on clublife — the game was taken by HOTU.
Game 2prediction correct
HOTU 30%clublife 70%
The model gave 70% on clublife — the game was taken by clublife.
Game 3prediction missed
HOTU 30%clublife 70%
The model gave 70% on clublife — the game was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteclublife · 70%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3