Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HOYOwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOYO
Pangolier
Jhocam · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Lone Druid
Meracle · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Meracle · 2 games
Ogre Magi
boombell · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
Yangon Galacticos
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 141 bans
Earth Spirit
53 picks · 41 bans
Puck
53 picks · 151 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 87 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 52 bans
Undying
41 picks · 64 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 87 bans
Rubick
39 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% HOYO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% HOYO
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:34
HOYO 51%Yangon Galacticos 49%
The model gave 51% on HOYO — the game was taken by HOYO in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RikiMeracle
SpectreYoung PH
Nature's ProphetForev
PuckFearless
RubickJhocam
Undyingboombell
Game 2prediction missed40:38
HOYO 47%Yangon Galacticos 53%
The model gave 53% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by HOYO in 55:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenMeracle
TerrorbladeYoung PH
PuckFearless
AxeForev
RubickJhocam
Undyingboombell
Model check result
Model favoriteHOYO · 53%
Series resultHOYO 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2