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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
29%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Actor · 5 games
20%

9Pandas

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 10 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
38%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 609 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
459 picks · 532 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 574 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
379 picks · 190 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
366 picks · 406 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
359 picks · 268 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
336 picks · 920 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 698 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:30
Hydra 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
50% · 124 games55% · 109 games
MagnusDarkLord^
Magnus
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerActor
43% · 80 games55% · 59 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
45% · 57 games57% · 147 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Muerta
Muertaprblms
44% · 124 games54% · 37 games
Grimstrokejesv
Grimstroke
49% · 33 games
LichSolo
Lich
Game 2prediction correct
Hydra 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas.
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 57%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2