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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 11 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 9 games
89%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
selfhate · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
mellojul · 6 games
50%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 12 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
flacko · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 9 games
89%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 8 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 675 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
424 picks · 416 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 726 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
330 picks · 634 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 521 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
305 picks · 600 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 272 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:5
Hydra 49%Apple City Gang 51%
The model gave 51% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkamellojul
49% · 126 games48% · 129 games
Doomyowaai
Doom
Wraith King
Wraith Kingselfhate
40% · 43 games56% · 54 games
MedusaNorma
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackActor
55% · 288 games50% · 97 games
Primal Beastdualrazee
Primal Beast
52% · 97 games
Jakiroflacko
Jakiro
45% · 80 games
WindrangerFernans
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed25:28
Hydra 49%Apple City Gang 51%
The model gave 51% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Hydra in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinselfhate
43% · 133 games50% · 73 games
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
58% · 258 games49% · 73 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Bristleback
BristlebackActor
52% · 216 games39% · 282 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
48% · 90 games
RingmasterFernans
Ringmaster
56% · 89 games
Elder Titanflacko
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 52%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2