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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ASAKURAloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddon
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
krylat · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
0%

ASAKURA

Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 11 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 11 games
82%
Lion
Lionsignature
Lil · 11 games
82%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 11 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 703 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 616 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 393 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 753 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1044 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 37%
Hero pool strength61% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:18
Hydra 54%ASAKURA 46%
The model gave 54% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 47:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultHydra 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1