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DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ASAKURAwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%

ASAKURA

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 1 game
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
389 picks · 493 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
375 picks · 289 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 391 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 551 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 383 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 722 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 151 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 265 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:37
Hydra 70%ASAKURA 30%
The model gave 70% on Hydra — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 46:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 70%
Series resultASAKURA 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1