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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2
series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 5 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lil · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
HappyDyurara · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Cloud · 3 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Kami · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Cloud · 3 games
67%

Azure Ray

Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 22 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
fy · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 16 games
94%
Batrider
Batridersignature
fy · 15 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
346 picks · 299 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 509 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
312 picks · 292 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 362 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
253 picks · 445 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
244 picks · 365 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
243 picks · 222 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
237 picks · 148 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 66%
Hero pool strength57% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:19
Hydra 23%Azure Ray 77%
The model gave 77% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Hydra in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierhina
53% · 283 games44% · 123 games
Svenlou
Sven
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidRetsu
54% · 170 games49% · 50 games
Lone DruidFaith_bian
Lone Druid
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkur0patbI4
53% · 126 games51% · 333 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
49% · 251 game49% · 394 games
Batrider天命
Batrider
Techies
Techiesxsvampire
49% · 329 games49% · 259 games
Lionfy
Lion
Game 2prediction correct17:30
Hydra 22%Azure Ray 78%
The model gave 78% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierhina
52% · 294 games55% · 33 games
Arc Wardenlou
Arc Warden
Ursa
UrsaRetsu
50% · 103 games55% · 325 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightkur0patbI4
50% · 142 games52% · 354 games
Primal BeastOri
Primal Beast
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
43% · 451 game47% · 350 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
47% · 306 games51% · 234 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct
Hydra 8%Azure Ray 92%
The model gave 92% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 92%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3