Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CIS Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 22 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 18 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
Blizzy · 16 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 15 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 14 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 331 bans
Mars
422 picks · 605 bans
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 433 bans
Weaver
351 picks · 790 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 183 bans
Kunkka
273 picks · 464 bans
Spirit Breaker
269 picks · 399 bans
Ember Spirit
250 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 77%
Hero pool strength62% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Hydra 47%CIS Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 37:21.
Game 2prediction correct19:27
Hydra 47%CIS Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 47:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 53%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2