Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CIS Rejectswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 22 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 19 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 17 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 15 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 14 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
492 picks · 352 bans
Mars
444 picks · 647 bans
Queen of Pain
382 picks · 476 bans
Weaver
380 picks · 829 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 192 bans
Kunkka
298 picks · 500 bans
Spirit Breaker
286 picks · 450 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 79%
Hero pool strength61% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:27
Hydra 42%CIS Rejects 58%
The model gave 58% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 41:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 58%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1