DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CSKA ESPORTSwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
CSKA ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
399 picks · 494 bans
Muerta
372 picks · 283 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 412 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 553 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 720 bans
Lion
311 picks · 143 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 250 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:25
Hydra 58%CSKA ESPORTS 42%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by CSKA ESPORTS in 25:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 58%
Series resultCSKA ESPORTS 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1