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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DMSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 3 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
jAMES · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Actor · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 1 game
0%

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 6 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
prblms · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
350 picks · 337 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 401 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 496 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
297 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 392 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 456 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:35
Hydra 40%DMS 60%
The model gave 60% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 54:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendselfhate
52% · 70 games63% · 71 game
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Zeus
ZeusEthereal
44% · 119 games53% · 62 games
Snipermellojul
Sniper
Underlord
UnderlordActor
52% · 87 games53% · 190 games
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batriderani-san
48% · 283 games51% · 128 games
Enchantressaik
Enchantress
37% · 108 games
Tuskprblms
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed27:36
Hydra 41%DMS 59%
The model gave 59% on DMS — the game was taken by Hydra in 1:03:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightselfhate
50% · 251 game52% · 158 games
LunaShigetsu
Luna
Invoker
InvokerEthereal
45% · 77 games48% · 31 game
Huskarmellojul
Huskar
Underlord
UnderlordActor
48% · 39 games49% · 158 games
KunkkaDaxak
Kunkka
Rubick
Rubickani-san
47% · 226 games53% · 71 game
Sniperprblms
Sniper
56% · 175 games
Clockwerkaik
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed
Hydra 34%DMS 66%
The model gave 66% on DMS — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 66%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3