Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hot Headed Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 17 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 8 games
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
Hot Headed Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 259 bans
Marci
314 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 208 bans
Undying
283 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 442 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 302 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 2prediction correct43:60
Hydra 66%Hot Headed Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:32.
Game 3prediction correct
Hydra 66%Hot Headed Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 66%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2