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Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddon
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
krylat · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
0%

Matreshka Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 643 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 566 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 705 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 937 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:36
Hydra 47%Matreshka Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDominic
45% · 93 games59% · 35 games
WeaverWoE
Weaver
58% · 15 games
ZeusEthereal
Zeus
56% · 30 games
BatriderChuvash
Batrider
47% · 13 games
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 53%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1