?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 10 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
HappyDyurara · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Lil · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
HappyDyurara · 8 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
mellojul · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
493 picks · 527 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
448 picks · 225 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
405 picks · 686 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
361 picks · 627 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 779 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
326 picks · 334 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 517 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Hydra 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
56% · 92 games51% · 167 games
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Faceless Void
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
50% · 23 games42% · 85 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyWorick
49% · 184 games50% · 93 games
Earthshakermellojul
Earthshaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHappyDyurara
51% · 80 games49% · 60 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLil
54% · 63 games45% · 37 games
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed40:22
Hydra 49%Natus Vincere 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Hydra in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKami
50% · 75 games50% · 90 games
Earthshakermellojul
Earthshaker
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
54% · 101 game54% · 198 games
BloodseekerShigetsu
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
58% · 176 games44% · 138 games
TidehunterMalik
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLil
49% · 46 games41% · 81 game
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
53% · 147 games42% · 38 games
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct15:30
Hydra 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKami
45% · 46 games53% · 193 games
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
49% · 102 games50% · 128 games
Earthshakermellojul
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
59% · 149 games54% · 223 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickLil
44% · 210 games56% · 15 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Silencer
SilencerHappyDyurara
44% · 100 games46% · 48 games
Grimstrokexsvampire
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3