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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 20 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 12 games
100%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
80%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 30 games
37%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 29 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 21 game
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 20 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Lodine · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 547 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
333 picks · 259 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 203 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
316 picks · 709 bans
57%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 757 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 388 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 154 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 329 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:2
Hydra 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 24:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
50% · 168 games51% · 150 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Kunkka
KunkkaAskold
48% · 131 game56% · 130 games
BeastmasterAinkrad
Beastmaster
Timbersaw
TimbersawBlizzy
43% · 95 games47% · 66 games
UnderlordTheChosenOne
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaMuka
53% · 156 games57% · 115 games
BaneHeaven
Bane
Elder Titan
Elder TitanZayac
42% · 133 games50% · 222 games
AbaddonVANSKOR
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct22:18
Hydra 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKami
54% · 111 games50% · 111 games
Phantom AssassinKiritych
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAskold
46% · 105 games45% · 172 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
57% · 152 games54% · 107 games
Centaur WarrunnerTheChosenOne
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
44% · 105 games53% · 165 games
MiranaHeaven
Mirana
Elder Titan
Elder TitanZayac
48% · 110 games45% · 28 games
ChenVANSKOR
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 56%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2