Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Sorrywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 23 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 20 games
Bane
Muka · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 17 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 42 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 35 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 30 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 28 games
Tiny
Worick · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 24 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 454 bans
Mars
497 picks · 695 bans
Bane
461 picks · 288 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 533 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 638 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 625 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total51% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:22
Hydra 47%No Sorry 53%
The model gave 53% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 25:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAskold
JuggernautKami
Winter Wyvernkickeed
Ember SpiritWorick
53% · 17 games
SlardarLastHero-
47% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
58% · 19 games
Marciy0nd
Game 2prediction missed
Hydra 51%No Sorry 49%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by No Sorry.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 51%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2