ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
PuckChampwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Underlord
Actor · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 525 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 362 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 447 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
272 picks · 144 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
255 picks · 945 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hydra 26%PuckChamp 74%
The model gave 74% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 74%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1