DreamLeague Season 24. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:1
RRRated Rwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Tidehunter
Actor · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ethereal · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 1 game
Rated R
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
357 picks · 345 bans
Hoodwink
355 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 507 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
292 picks · 262 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 385 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Rated R
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hydra 76%Rated R 24%
The model gave 76% on Hydra — the game was taken by Rated R.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 76%
Series resultRated R 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1