Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 31 game
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 23 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 17 games
Rune Eaters
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 3 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
hAze · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 263 bans
Mars
403 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 397 bans
Death Prophet
330 picks · 667 bans
Ember Spirit
297 picks · 428 bans
Weaver
290 picks · 346 bans
Sand King
289 picks · 364 bans
Templar Assassin
262 picks · 559 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:21
Hydra 58%Rune Eaters 42%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKami
TinyTA2000
Death ProphetAskold
PangolierhAze
TidehunterBlizzy
Sand KingCloud
ChenZayac
Keeper of the LightArrOw
HoodwinkMuka
Game 2prediction missed13:38
Hydra 60%Rune Eaters 40%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKami
TinyTA2000
PangolierAskold
MarsCloud
Dragon KnightBlizzy
BatriderhAze
HoodwinkMuka
MiranaArrOw
EnchantressZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2