?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
StoRmloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Lil · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
HappyDyurara · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
HappyDyurara · 8 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 8 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
HappyDyurara · 7 games
57%

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 9 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 9 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
14%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
OneJey · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 6 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
495 picks · 531 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
447 picks · 224 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 689 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 626 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 711 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 782 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
329 picks · 339 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 521 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:28
Hydra 60%StoRm 40%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by StoRm in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKami
48% · 110 games52% · 340 games
BeastmasterDominic
Beastmaster
Invoker
InvokerWorick
39% · 63 games48% · 71 game
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCloud
56% · 99 games36% · 56 games
ClinkzOneJey
Clinkz
Enchantress
EnchantressHappyDyurara
54% · 246 games51% · 250 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Techies
TechiesLil
58% · 199 games
Game 2prediction correct37:32
Hydra 59%StoRm 41%
The model gave 59% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 1:00:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKami
56% · 96 games53% · 273 games
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
44% · 240 games50% · 152 games
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCloud
44% · 60 games53% · 11 games
WarlockSoNNeikO
Warlock
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLil
51% · 147 games50% · 305 games
TechiesOneJey
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
51% · 198 games
Game 3prediction correct36:40
Hydra 61%StoRm 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 1:06:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
46% · 57 games43% · 82 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Slark
SlarkKami
56% · 58 games53% · 92 games
Legion CommanderDominic
Legion Commander
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
54% · 127 games40% · 144 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLil
61% · 56 games48% · 98 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
52% · 118 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 67%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3