Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPSURIM PRASADloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 25 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 19 games
Banesignature
Muka · 18 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 15 games
SURIM PRASAD
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 436 bans
Mars
487 picks · 690 bans
Bane
454 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
439 picks · 530 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 616 bans
Sand King
377 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:18
Hydra 76%SURIM PRASAD 24%
The model gave 76% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusAskold
TinyAlexxo
Warlockkickeed
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Hydra 75%SURIM PRASAD 25%
The model gave 75% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 24:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
ZeusAlexxo
Warlockkickeed
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 86%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2