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Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 16 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Lefitan · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Lefitan · 11 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lil · 10 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
HappyDyurara · 9 games
56%

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 9 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Accel · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Michael · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
646 picks · 689 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
533 picks · 345 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
448 picks · 955 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 938 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 865 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
397 picks · 876 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 998 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:12
Hydra 46%Thunder Awaken 54%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKami
56% · 126 games54% · 183 games
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
Broodmother
Underlord
UnderlordCloud
46% · 39 games48% · 94 games
Legion CommanderILICH-
Legion Commander
Monkey King
Monkey KingWorick
50% · 82 games46% · 98 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Techies
TechiesOneJey
52% · 89 games
Lich
LichHappyDyurara
49% · 39 games
Game 2prediction missed41:14
Hydra 43%Thunder Awaken 57%
The model gave 57% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKami
60% · 124 games53% · 78 games
LunaSmiling Knight
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
44% · 167 games52% · 330 games
DoomILICH-
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
46% · 261 game52% · 334 games
BatriderMjz
Batrider
Lich
LichHappyDyurara
46% · 73 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
45% · 117 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 62%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2