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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Unholy Amberloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 17 games
71%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
40%
Silencer
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 8 games
50%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
63%

Unholy Amber

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
354 picks · 253 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
316 picks · 557 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
284 picks · 466 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 192 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
250 picks · 428 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
238 picks · 512 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 294 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 105 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Hydra 75%Unholy Amber 25%
The model gave 75% on Hydra — the game was taken by Unholy Amber in 23:15.
Game 2prediction correct25:11
Hydra 75%Unholy Amber 25%
The model gave 75% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 19:20.
Game 3prediction correct29:15
Hydra 75%Unholy Amber 25%
The model gave 75% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 26:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 75%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3