Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 12 games
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 11 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 6 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 5 games
Virtus.pro
Marcisignature
yamich · 24 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 19 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 18 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
352 picks · 574 bans
Tiny
347 picks · 241 bans
Undying
291 picks · 517 bans
Tusk
264 picks · 170 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 408 bans
Primal Beast
249 picks · 498 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 286 bans
Enigma
204 picks · 681 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:11
Hydra 40%Virtus.pro 60%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerKami
Naga SirenKoma`
BeastmasterCloud
PangolierSquad1x
Keeper of the LightLefitan
EnigmaNoticed
TuskWorick
Tinysayuw
DisruptorHappyDyurara
DazzleDukalis
Game 2prediction missed27:16
Hydra 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperKami
Faceless VoidKoma`
BroodmotherCloud
PangolierNoticed
Ember SpiritWorick
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Keeper of the LightLefitan
Treant ProtectorDukalis
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Hoodwinksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2