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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 9 games
33%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 9 games
67%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 9 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
kickeed · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Askold · 4 games
0%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 22 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 17 games
41%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Stojkov · 15 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
21%
Lina
Linasignature
Stojkov · 14 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
b1kA · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
376 picks · 601 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
322 picks · 208 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
313 picks · 554 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
252 picks · 481 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
241 picks · 367 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
223 picks · 134 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 270 bans
52%
Enigma
Enigma
212 picks · 729 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:46
Hydra 63%Water Rune Enjoyers 37%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
50% · 200 games51% · 81 game
UrsaPalantimos
Ursa
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDinozavrik
48% · 43 games53% · 63 games
BrewmasterBliNcc
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
60% · 130 games45% · 181 game
Hoodwinky0nd
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
47% · 110 games48% · 282 games
SnapfireMary_y
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskLefitan
49% · 124 games
Game 2prediction correct66:45
Hydra 61%Water Rune Enjoyers 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 56:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDinozavrik
54% · 46 games55% · 40 games
Drow RangerPalantimos
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
50% · 120 games56% · 48 games
BrewmasterBliNcc
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCloud
51% · 55 games50% · 122 games
Clockwerky0nd
Clockwerk
Riki
RikiLefitan
48% · 7 games44% · 81 game
Crystal MaidenMary_y
Crystal Maiden
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
45% · 63 games
Game 3prediction correct38:11
Hydra 62%Water Rune Enjoyers 38%
The model gave 62% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperDinozavrik
43% · 51 game51% · 58 games
Naga SirenPalantimos
Naga Siren
Zeus
ZeusWorick
45% · 93 games55% · 147 games
BeastmasterBliNcc
Beastmaster
Lycan
LycanCloud
53% · 66 games51% · 168 games
SnapfireMary_y
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskLefitan
52% · 155 games45% · 115 games
Hoodwinky0nd
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
54% · 123 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 72%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3