European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WW Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 11 games
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
Terrorbladesignature
selfhate · 7 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
mellojul · 6 games
WW Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
444 picks · 674 bans
Jakiro
400 picks · 399 bans
Phantom Assassin
354 picks · 720 bans
Bristleback
325 picks · 611 bans
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 531 bans
Muerta
317 picks · 191 bans
Beastmaster
300 picks · 580 bans
Warlock
293 picks · 271 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hydra 73%WW Team 27%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by WW Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Hydra 73%WW Team 27%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Game 3prediction correct
Hydra 73%WW Team 27%
The model gave 73% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 73%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3