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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNGBLDloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
29%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Actor · 5 games
20%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 5 games
40%

YNGBLD

Doom
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 649 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
455 picks · 523 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 568 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 395 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
337 picks · 258 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
329 picks · 909 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
322 picks · 668 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:23
Hydra 68%YNGBLD 32%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEthereal
57% · 10 games41% · 51 game
DawnbreakerDominic
Dawnbreaker
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerselfhate
57% · 3 games
Bristleback
BristlebackActor
64% · 24 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinprblms
56% · 14 games
Game 2prediction correct46:23
Hydra 64%YNGBLD 36%
The model gave 64% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
53% · 39 games47% · 156 games
TimbersawDominic
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
65% · 42 games
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
49% · 37 games
Muerta
Muertaprblms
43% · 38 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 76%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2