?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YNTloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 29 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 27 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 24 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 23 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 18 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 16 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 16 games
75%

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 3 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Malr1ne · 2 games
100%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jesv · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
556 picks · 374 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
485 picks · 582 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
452 picks · 611 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
429 picks · 776 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
366 picks · 180 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
354 picks · 548 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
347 picks · 578 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
289 picks · 356 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:14
Hydra 61%YNT 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKami
46% · 166 games49% · 111 games
Wraith KingDarkLord^
Wraith King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAskold
53% · 65 games56% · 32 games
BristlebackMalr1ne
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanBlizzy
50% · 92 games48% · 113 games
Death ProphetDominic
Death Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
43% · 76 games51% · 135 games
Nyx Assassinjesv
Nyx Assassin
Io
IoMuka
50% · 191 game56% · 199 games
BanedSa
Bane
Game 2prediction missed28:30
Hydra 65%YNT 35%
The model gave 65% on Hydra — the game was taken by YNT in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKami
50% · 123 games42% · 161 game
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
Phantom Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
57% · 129 games48% · 17 games
PugnaMalr1ne
Pugna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
60% · 128 games57% · 70 games
LycanDominic
Lycan
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
52% · 44 games47% · 234 games
Grimstrokejesv
Grimstroke
Rubick
RubickMuka
44% · 108 games45% · 50 games
OmniknightdSa
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct19:23
Hydra 64%YNT 36%
The model gave 64% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKami
49% · 139 games68% · 37 games
LycanDominic
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracAskold
52% · 106 games48% · 219 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
55% · 90 games50% · 126 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Rubick
RubickMuka
43% · 117 games42% · 40 games
OmniknightdSa
Omniknight
Dazzle
DazzleZayac
56% · 5 games43% · 35 games
Skywrath Magejesv
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 75%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3