Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Winter Wyvernoften banned
kickeed · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 9 games
Warlocksignature
kickeed · 9 games
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 7 games
Abaddonoften banned
kickeed · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 5 games
Tiny
Askold · 4 games
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
376 picks · 602 bans
Tiny
322 picks · 207 bans
Undying
312 picks · 557 bans
Primal Beast
252 picks · 481 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 365 bans
Tusk
221 picks · 134 bans
Enigma
213 picks · 730 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% YNT
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:21
Hydra 49%YNT 51%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:19.
Game 2prediction missed21:9
Hydra 49%YNT 51%
The model gave 51% on YNT — the game was taken by Hydra in 21:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 51%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2