Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HYPEONE
Batrideroften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Shining · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Shining · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
iG Vitality
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Summer · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Jakiro
Sj · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
781 picks · 521 bans
Tiny
558 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 444 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 575 bans
Nature's Prophet
422 picks · 672 bans
Snapfire
401 picks · 289 bans
Death Prophet
388 picks · 736 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 802 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
HYPEONE 46%iG Vitality 54%
The model gave 54% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSakata
Ursaukiyo
BrewmasterShining
Dark Seerdolem
46% · 101 game
Ember SpiritAsh
54% · 77 games
TuskDrink
51% · 30 games
JakiroSj
Game 2prediction correct12:28
HYPEONE 46%iG Vitality 54%
The model gave 54% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerSakata
Naga Sirenukiyo
TimbersawShining
Nature's Prophetdolem
44% · 38 games
Ember SpiritAsh
54% · 61 game
TuskDrink
56% · 5 games
JakiroSj
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 57%
Series resultiG Vitality 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2