OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 11 games
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Lina
261 picks · 432 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 344 bans
Luna
253 picks · 344 bans
Winter Wyvern
249 picks · 245 bans
Terrorblade
237 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:33
iG Vitality 48%Army Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzukiyo
Queen of PainMamangDaya
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Vengeful Spiritdb-
54% · 18 games
Night StalkerwoMy
43% · 50 games
PangolierLym-
Game 2prediction correct15:12
iG Vitality 51%Army Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 24:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Magnusdb-
Monkey Kingukiyo
Queen of PainMamangDaya
52% · 37 games
TimbersawwoMy
41% · 49 games
PangolierLym-
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2