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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Big Brainwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 10 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
38%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Ponyo · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 8 games
38%

Big Brain

Tusk
Tusk
marblue · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Manic · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Molasses · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
739 picks · 566 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 524 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1283 bans
57%
Doom
Doom
555 picks · 1095 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
504 picks · 564 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
472 picks · 951 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 649 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Big Brain
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Big Brain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:30
iG Vitality 45%Big Brain 55%
The model gave 55% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
50% · 130 games57% · 132 games
MedusaGodKing
Medusa
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
47% · 96 games49% · 75 games
Dark Seercsj
Dark Seer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerHara
43% · 70 games55% · 72 games
RikiSakata
Riki
Magnus
MagnusTzy
47% · 89 games50% · 243 games
Tuskomoxiloyi
Tusk
Silencer
SilencerPonyo
48% · 137 games
Game 2prediction missed28:22
iG Vitality 47%Big Brain 53%
The model gave 53% on Big Brain — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingukiyo
49% · 117 games51% · 87 games
AlchemistGodKing
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
57% · 142 games47% · 312 games
Batridercsj
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTzy
60% · 165 games40% · 76 games
InvokerSakata
Invoker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHara
49% · 67 games45% · 64 games
Earth Spiritomoxiloyi
Earth Spirit
Lich
LichPonyo
54% · 48 games
Game 3prediction correct33:39
iG Vitality 46%Big Brain 54%
The model gave 54% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 52:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
51% · 301 game52% · 207 games
MorphlingGodKing
Morphling
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerukiyo
55% · 134 games48% · 274 games
Void SpiritSakata
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomTzy
49% · 252 games48% · 188 games
Timbersawcsj
Timbersaw
Techies
TechiesHara
48% · 166 games51% · 308 games
Tuskomoxiloyi
Tusk
Lich
LichPonyo
48% · 124 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBig Brain · 58%
Series resultBig Brain 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3