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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Jakiro
Jakiro
Sj · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ash · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Ponyo · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Hara · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Drink · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tzy · 7 games
71%

Limit

Tusk
Tusk
Yds · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
cxk · 8 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Victoria · 8 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Yds · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
Chosenone · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Echo · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
707 picks · 497 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 506 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
563 picks · 1096 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
549 picks · 602 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
538 picks · 1221 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1042 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
461 picks · 924 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
457 picks · 662 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 15%
Hero pool strength53% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
iG Vitality 57%Limit 43%
The model gave 57% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 27:03.
Game 2prediction correct24:7
iG Vitality 57%Limit 43%
The model gave 57% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 21:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 57%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2