Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Supernovaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
No games played over 6 months.
Supernova
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 243 bans
Marci
327 picks · 560 bans
Undying
285 picks · 476 bans
Tusk
270 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 419 bans
Primal Beast
240 picks · 499 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 282 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:33
iG Vitality 57%Supernova 43%
The model gave 57% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSummer
Hoodwinksheep
Lone Druidukiyo
ClockwerkSj
Game 2prediction correct32:16
iG Vitality 59%Supernova 41%
The model gave 59% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendukiyo
Hoodwinksheep
Lone DruidSummer
UndyingSj
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 63%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2