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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Supernovawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

iG Vitality

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sj · 3 games
67%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Sj · 3 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Summer · 2 games
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
50%

Supernova

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 1 game
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
772 picks · 505 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 386 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 582 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 644 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 284 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
385 picks · 704 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
360 picks · 785 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% iG Vitality
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:25
iG Vitality 46%Supernova 54%
The model gave 54% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAsh
55% · 36 games50% · 316 games
Tusksheep
Tusk
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerukiyo
54% · 42 games
Abaddon
Abaddondolem
45% · 16 games
Snapfire
SnapfireDrink
47% · 109 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSj
48% · 113 games
Game 2prediction correct29:8
iG Vitality 52%Supernova 48%
The model gave 52% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 24:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenukiyo
65% · 30 games46% · 319 games
Snapfiresheep
Snapfire
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAsh
62% · 100 games
Visage
Visagedolem
55% · 52 games
Jakiro
JakiroSj
38% · 28 games
Tusk
TuskDrink
53% · 109 games
Game 3prediction missed28:23
iG Vitality 52%Supernova 48%
The model gave 52% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Supernova in 51:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaukiyo
53% · 60 games51% · 269 games
Rubicksheep
Rubick
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAsh
51% · 126 games
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerdolem
little data
Monkey King
Monkey KingDrink
54% · 57 games
Jakiro
JakiroSj
37% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 54%
Series resultSupernova 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3