Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
iG Vitalitywin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ybb Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
iG Vitality
Iooften banned
Dogf1ghts · 10 games
Banesignature
QYQX · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Dogf1ghts · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 7 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Dark Willow
QYQX · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
440 picks · 265 bans
Mars
404 picks · 557 bans
Tiny
351 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
335 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 438 bans
Sand King
295 picks · 384 bans
Weaver
278 picks · 332 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:45
iG Vitality 43%Ybb Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 50:19.
Game 2prediction missed31:19
iG Vitality 43%Ybb Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 41:34.
Game 3prediction missed32:13
iG Vitality 43%Ybb Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 36:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 57%
Series resultiG Vitality 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3