ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Bloodseekersignature
423 · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
423 · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Se · 6 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 5 games
Magnus
eleven · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 5 games
Rubick
ace12 · 5 games
Shadow Demon
ace12 · 5 games
Bleed Esports
Silencersignature
DuBu · 11 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
iceiceice · 6 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 85 bans
Grimstroke
195 picks · 222 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 395 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Phoenix
167 picks · 225 bans
Earth Spirit
161 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:43
IHC Esports 50%Bleed Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 48:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren423
SpectreJaCkky
Primal Beasteleven
Ancient ApparitionTaiga
Earth SpiritSancity
TuskDJ
BatriderSe
Grimstrokeace12
Game 2prediction missed26:40
IHC Esports 50%Bleed Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 51:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
Templar AssassinJaCkky
Earth SpiritSancity
TuskDJ
Wraith Kingeleven
Ancient ApparitionTaiga
SilencerSe
Grimstrokeace12
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 51%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2