Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Miranasignature
Se · 6 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
423 · 4 games
Rikioften banned
Sancity · 3 games
Rubick
ace12 · 3 games
Tiny
ace12 · 3 games
Tusk
ace12 · 3 games
Disruptor
Se · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 2 games
BOOM Esports
Tusk
Tims · 17 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 11 games
Snapfire
xNova · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
990 picks · 674 bans
Tiny
660 picks · 485 bans
Nature's Prophet
596 picks · 950 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 436 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1143 bans
Treant Protector
511 picks · 510 bans
Clockwerk
489 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 53%
Hero pool strength65% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:25
IHC Esports 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSancity
Phantom LancerNatsumi
Batrider423
Queen of PainYopaj
Tuskace12
BrewmasterFbz
DisruptorSe
EnchantressxNova
48% · 88 games
EarthshakerXepher
Game 2prediction correct2:27
IHC Esports 36%BOOM Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 19:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom423
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Ember SpiritSancity
Death ProphetYopaj
Rubickace12
TimbersawFbz
JakiroSe
EnchantressxNova
54% · 100 games
EarthshakerXepher
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 76%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2