ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 1:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DDeathNotenilodsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 8 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Silencer
Se · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Se · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
DeathNotenilods
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 629 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
IHC Esports 77%DeathNotenilods 23%
The model gave 77% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 77%
Series resultIHC Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1