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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 6 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 6 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
ace12 · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 3 games
33%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Sancity · 3 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
ace12 · 3 games
67%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 22 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 14 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 11 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 688 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 955 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
555 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 361 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
525 picks · 382 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1188 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
503 picks · 378 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:22
IHC Esports 56%Myth Avenue Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 47:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
55% · 331 game52% · 181 game
TerrorbladeYoungGodLevi
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaSancity
43% · 130 games53% · 14 games
Huskarxsilearn
Huskar
Silencer
SilencerSe
52% · 226 games49% · 345 games
SnapfireMeracle
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskace12
49% · 406 games50% · 553 games
RubickPlayHard
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed43:53
IHC Esports 55%Myth Avenue Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 1:01:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
43% · 314 games57% · 81 game
AbaddonYoungGodLevi
Abaddon
Timbersaw
Timbersaw423
51% · 126 games53% · 279 games
Nature's ProphetMeracle
Nature's Prophet
Earthshaker
Earthshakerace12
42% · 59 games52% · 332 games
Pangolierxsilearn
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaSe
51% · 268 games50% · 75 games
JakiroPlayHard
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed24:40
IHC Esports 54%Myth Avenue Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom423
56% · 134 games52% · 231 game
TerrorbladeYoungGodLevi
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSancity
49% · 250 games53% · 236 games
Batriderxsilearn
Batrider
Rubick
Rubickace12
49% · 278 games43% · 235 games
MarsMeracle
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
48% · 167 games49% · 127 games
JakiroPlayHard
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 59%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3