PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SSageloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 6 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Silencer
Se · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Sage
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 653 bans
Mars
387 picks · 618 bans
Lion
385 picks · 357 bans
Techies
380 picks · 311 bans
Batrider
365 picks · 791 bans
Tiny
359 picks · 413 bans
Vengeful Spirit
354 picks · 355 bans
Hoodwink
336 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
IHC Esports 77%Sage 23%
The model gave 77% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
IHC Esports 77%Sage 23%
The model gave 77% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 77%
Series resultIHC Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2