Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Salvation Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Silencer
Se · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Salvation Gaming
Anti-Mageoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
Gyrocopter
LOyd · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 530 bans
Mars
319 picks · 482 bans
Techies
309 picks · 241 bans
Hoodwink
299 picks · 176 bans
Batrider
298 picks · 568 bans
Tiny
283 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:13
IHC Esports 61%Salvation Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmastereleven
Templar AssassinWonder'boy
GyrocopterFortuneSoul
MorphlingYoungGodLevi
Techiesace12
Centaur WarrunnerRupido
UndyingSe
RubickDric~
50% · 100 games
Crystal MaidenLOyd
Game 2prediction missed19:38
IHC Esports 60%Salvation Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 50:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterFortuneSoul
AlchemistYoungGodLevi
Centaur Warrunnereleven
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Rubickace12
MarsRupido
Crystal MaidenSe
TechiesDric~
58% · 199 games
MiranaLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 68%
Series resultSalvation Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2