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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 6 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
423 · 4 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
ace12 · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 3 games
33%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Sancity · 3 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
ace12 · 3 games
67%

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 26 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 20 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 18 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1007 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
606 picks · 958 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 440 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 359 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1167 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
505 picks · 494 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
504 picks · 363 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
IHC Esports 58%SPAWN Team 42%
The model gave 58% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
52% · 498 games56% · 137 games
Naga SirenDreamocel
Naga Siren
Slark
SlarkSancity
53% · 184 games46% · 350 games
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
45% · 330 games54% · 77 games
MagnuswoMy
Magnus
Tusk
Tuskace12
48% · 692 games50% · 584 games
Tinydalul
Tiny
47% · 556 games
RubickHyde
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct45:14
IHC Esports 57%SPAWN Team 43%
The model gave 57% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
49% · 435 games55% · 58 games
SpectreDreamocel
Spectre
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
50% · 106 games56% · 120 games
EnigmawoMy
Enigma
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
48% · 323 games50% · 230 games
PangolierMamangDaya
Pangolier
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageace12
48% · 140 games50% · 236 games
Clockwerkdalul
Clockwerk
46% · 360 games
RubickHyde
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 62%
Series resultIHC Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2