Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 1:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TBTeam Bocilloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 8 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Silencer
Se · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Team Bocil
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 339 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
323 picks · 474 bans
Mars
297 picks · 398 bans
Techies
280 picks · 195 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 151 bans
Pangolier
269 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
265 picks · 470 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
IHC Esports 74%Team Bocil 26%
The model gave 74% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 74%
Series resultIHC Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1