Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTTeam Toughloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IHC Esports
Mirana
Se · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
423 · 3 games
Rikioften banned
Sancity · 3 games
Rubick
ace12 · 2 games
Tiny
ace12 · 2 games
Tusk
ace12 · 2 games
Disruptor
Se · 1 game
Doomoften banned
423 · 1 game
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 2 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Rikioften banned
seimei · 1 game
Viperoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
930 picks · 635 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 454 bans
Nature's Prophet
555 picks · 885 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 438 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 541 bans
Snapfire
498 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
478 picks · 1052 bans
Clockwerk
453 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% IHC Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:26
IHC Esports 56%Team Tough 44%
The model gave 56% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSancity
Death Prophetseimei
Venomancer423
Rubickace12
JakiroSe
Game 2prediction correct36:14
IHC Esports 56%Team Tough 44%
The model gave 56% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinSancity
Primal Beastseimei
Nature's Prophet423
Tuskace12
DisruptorSe
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 58%
Series resultIHC Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2