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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IHC Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XERXIAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 7 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
423 · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 3 games
33%

XERXIA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 946 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
543 picks · 402 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 426 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1202 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:22
IHC Esports 38%XERXIA 62%
The model gave 62% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 23:50.
Game 2prediction missed23:7
IHC Esports 38%XERXIA 62%
The model gave 62% on XERXIA — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 30:21.
Game 3prediction correct22:40
IHC Esports 38%XERXIA 62%
The model gave 62% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 35:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 62%
Series resultXERXIA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3